The short version: after the record-setting first round, buyers blinked. Cat A gave back $3,000, B and C eased slightly — but every category remains above mid-June levels, and the demand data says pause, not reversal.
What moved
- Cat A: down $3,000 to $126,000 — the biggest percentage dip of the round (−2.3%). The telling number is underneath: 1,590 bids for 1,245 certificates, a 1.28× oversubscription — sharply cooler than the 1.51× of the record round. Buyers hesitated exactly where the trade said they would: above the $128k psychological line.
- Cat B: down $999 to $129,890 — barely a dent, and demand stayed hot at 1.57× (1,365 bids for 871). The bigger-car market did not blink.
- Cat C: eased $1,111 off its all-time high to $93,889.
- Cat E (open): up $170 to $129,971 at 1.71× oversubscribed — the hottest category on the board. Dealers stockpiling flexible certificates before the new quota period is not a sign of expected weakness.
- Cat D: flat at $10,202.
Why this is a breather, not a turn
Three reasons. First, the pullback only partly reversed the previous round’s jump — every category is still above its mid-June level. Second, the sharpest demand cooling was concentrated in Cat A, which is classic sticker-shock behaviour after a record print, not a change in underlying demand. Third — and most important — the just-announced August–October quota cuts Cat A supply by 4.0% (to about 1,189 certificates per exercise, from 1,245 this round) right as year-end EV incentive deadlines pull demand forward. Less supply into firmer demand is not the setup for a sustained decline.
Cat B is the one genuine bright spot: its quota rises 6.2% next quarter, and with the A–B spread now under $4,000, stepping up to a bigger car costs unusually little premium.
What it means if you're buying soon
If you're bidding Cat A: this dip is a window measured in weeks, not months — the next exercise (results 5 August, 4pm) runs on the tighter new quota. If your purchase is planned, a $126k round is better than what Q4 likely offers. If you're renewing: August's PQP will digest these softer July prints with the usual lag — check the PQP forecaster to see exactly what the remaining rounds must average for your target.
Next bidding opens 3 August under the new quota; results 5 August at 4pm — our live board updates automatically.
Tell me your target car and timeline — I'll give you a straight read on the COE cycle for your situation.
Figures from LTA published bidding results. This is general commentary, not financial advice.